This is an interesting article found on crownweather.com. This is a long range prediction that we all know is not typically the most accurate but let’s all use it as a wake up call that hurricane season is just around the corner. This aricle suggests we could be subject to a Hurricane in May.
Model Guidance Still Hinting At Tropical Development In As Little As 7 Days From Now Somewhere Between The Western Caribbean & Near The US Southeast Coast
Saturday, May 12, 2012 10:16 am
by Rob Lightbown
The long range forecast guidance continues to point to potential tropical or sub-tropical development in about a week from now. The guidance, however, cannot agree on where exactly this development may occur.
The latest GFS model is forecasting that development will occur in the western Caribbean near the north coast of Honduras as early as next Saturday and forecasts it to slowly track northward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by about May 25th before tracking across south Florida during the Memorial Day weekend.
The European model guidance has a completely different solution and forecasts the development of a sub-tropical storm near Great Abaco Island in the northwestern Bahamas on Friday and forecasts this sub-tropical storm to track northward just off of the east coast of Florida next Saturday before coming inland in southeastern and eastern North Carolina next Sunday and next Monday.
The Canadian model seems to agree with the GFS model and forecasts the development of a tropical system in the western Caribbean between May 19th and May 21st. It should be pointed out that the European ensemble guidance seems to hint at lowering pressures in the southwestern and western Caribbean right around May 20th and 21st supporting the GFS operational model idea.
My thoughts are really no different than what they were a couple of days ago: The overall weather pattern that is forecast to set up for the second half of May is one that can lead to early season tropical development in either the western Caribbean or somewhere near the Bahamas much like what all of the model guidance is hinting at. Many of the analog years that I have been looking at for this upcoming hurricane season have had early season tropical development. These years include 1951, 1957 and 1976; in fact, 1951 and 1976 had tropical development in May with Category 3 Hurricane Able developing just off of the US Southeast Coast in Mid-May of 1951.
So, I do think that the GFS, European and Canadian models are pointing out what could happen with the pattern that is forecast to set up. I think we really need to start watching the corridor between the northwestern Bahamas and the western Caribbean starting around next Saturday and then right through the following week (Week of May 21st) .
Obviously this is something that is not a guarantee, but it is a distinct possibility and it will be something that I will be keeping close tabs on and I will post another discussion on this potential first thing Monday morning.